A new survey has revealed that optimism among US small businesses declined in September, with rising uncertainty, inflation and labour shortages continuing to weigh on business owners.
The Small Business Optimism Index, published by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), fell 0.8 points to 97.9, putting it one-tenth of a point below its 52-year average of 98.0.
The NFIB’s Uncertainty Index also rose by one point to 90, remaining well above its historical average of 68. The findings suggest that business owners are taking a cautious approach to investment and expansion amid concerns over operating costs and the availability of qualified workers.
Labour quality and availability remained the most frequently reported problem for the third consecutive month. Some 26% of business owners identified it as their single most important business concern, an increase of three percentage points from August.
Inflation was the second most commonly reported issue, with 20% of owners citing it as their main concern, up four percentage points from the previous month. The historical average for inflation as a leading business problem stands at 7%.
Expectations for business conditions also weakened for the second consecutive month. A net 6% of owners, after seasonal adjustment, expect conditions to improve over the next six months, down four percentage points from August. Meanwhile, just 7% said September was a good time to expand their business, a fall of five percentage points.
The survey also found that business owners had become less positive about the overall health of their companies. The proportion describing their business as being in good health fell nine percentage points to 48%, while the share reporting fair conditions rose seven points to 35%.
Hiring challenges continued to affect smaller firms, with 32% of owners reporting job openings they were unable to fill in September. Of those hiring or trying to hire, 87% said they had received few or no qualified applicants for the positions available.
Despite these difficulties, a seasonally adjusted net 17% of owners plan to create new jobs over the next three months, unchanged from August.
Bill Dunkelberg, Chief Economist at NFIB, said: “Small business optimism stayed near the long-term average in September as Main Street owners remain uncertain about business conditions.
“Small business owners are proceeding with caution as they interpret how rising costs, interest rates, and the difficulty in finding qualified employees are impacting their business.”
Poor sales and taxes were tied as the third most important problem, with 11% of owners identifying each as their main concern. Reports of poor sales increased for the third consecutive month, while the proportion citing taxes fell five percentage points from August.
The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data through quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership, with the September 2026 survey providing the latest assessment of conditions among US small business owners.
